Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.

This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.

Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
— nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.

Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.

Calculating His Base Value

No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.

To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.

The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.

Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.

Avg. Annual Value

$76m

Over the last 3 years

= 1 win = $8m

Risk & Potential for injury

Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.

Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.

Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.

In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.

The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.

Projecting Future Worth

So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.

projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years

Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.

Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.

Aging Adjustment

-$122.3m

Potential loss of value

Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.

Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?

Free Agent Comparisons

Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.

calculating the low end

By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.

By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.

Most similar free agents

$303.5m

calculating the high end

However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.

If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.

Priciest Peers

$624m

These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.

Where Could He Go?

There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.

So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.

Los Angeles Angels

2023 Payroll: $221m

Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 Payroll: $236m

San Francisco Giants

2023 Payroll: $196m

Seattle Mariners

2023 Payroll: $153m

New York Mets

2023 Payroll: $346m

Chicago Cubs

2023 Payroll: $189m

The post The Shohei Ohtani True Value Calculator appeared first on Sports News.

ATLANTA — San Francisco Giants manager Gabe Kapler on Sunday announced that the club’s top pitching prospect, Kyle Harrison, will make his MLB debut on Tuesday against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Speaking after San Francisco’s 4-3 win over the Atlanta Braves, Kapler was optimistic about Harrison’s chances, even against a formidable Phillies lineup that is in the thick of the National League wild-card race.

“We think he is ready,” Kapler said of the left-hander who has 109 strikeouts in 67⅔ innings in the minor leagues this season. “He’s a great guy with an unbelievable work ethic, so I’m excited to see him and our team is excited to see him.”

Harrison, 22, No. 36 in ESPN’s midseason list of top 50 MLB prospects, pitched in the MLB All-Star Futures Game last year and will join the Giants this week out of Triple-A.

Despite the strikeout numbers, his command has become a question this season, one of the main reasons he wasn’t higher on ESPN’s list.

“The last couple of outings, I think he’s taken some real steps forward,” Kapler said. “Philadelphia is a really good lineup. … But I don’t want to focus too much on that because this is about Kyle earning the opportunity, hanging in there, fighting through a challenging season.”

The Phillies, who took on the Washington Nationals on Sunday night, entered the game with 579 runs this season, good enough for second in the NL East. In the first two games of the Nationals series, they scored 19 runs.

“I don’t want to set any boundaries on him,” Kapler said. “Let’s let him get here, and get him ready to roll. We want to have him to have easy, comfortable travel. And then have him start to work with our pitching coaches, and we’ll develop a game plan.”

A 6-foot-2 native of San Jose, California, Harrison was chosen in the third round of the 2020 draft.

The series begins on Monday with Scott Alexander (6-2, 4.06) starting for the Giants. He will be opposed by Aaron Nola (10-8, 4.58).

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The post ‘He is ready’: Harrison to debut for Giants Tuesday appeared first on Sports News.

MINNEAPOLIS — Dallas Keuchel carried a perfect game into the seventh inning before allowing a double to Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds, and Edouard Julien drove in a pair of runs for the Minnesota Twins in a 2-0 win against the Pirates on Sunday.

Keuchel, the 35-year-old, soft-tossing left-hander, didn’t allow a baserunner until Reynolds’ drive with one out in the seventh evaded outfielder Matt Wallner and deflected off the wall for the first hit.

Signed to a minor league contract in June, Keuchel was making his third start in the majors this season.

He was pulled after allowing Reynolds’ hit on his 85th pitch of the game. Griffin Jax got two strikeouts to end the seventh. Jhoan Duran struck out two in the ninth and earned his 23rd save.

“I feel like I’m very aware of everything going on,” Keuchel said of knowing he had a perfect game going. “To me, that’s the fun part, is going out and competing against other great athletes in the box. To do that, and corral the strike zone again today, was probably the most fun I’ve had in a very long time and I’d like to keep it up.”

Julien plated Donovan Solano with a sacrifice fly in the fourth and then drove in Solano with a double in the sixth for Minnesota, which has won five of seven and extended its lead in the American League Central to six games over Cleveland.

“It’s not by accident that he continues to find ways to get outs, and he’s been doing it for over a decade,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. “And he’s doing it in a way that you see less of in today’s game.”

Baldelli spoke with Keuchel in the middle of the game and asked the veteran if he thought he could finish the game if the no-hitter was intact. Keuchel gave an emphatic yes, in part due to the large amounts of caffeine he had consumed.

“That might have been some of the caffeine working in my bloodstream, but at the same time, I just kind of assessed each inning and I was being truthful,” Keuchel said, adding about the seventh inning: “I knew I was kind of running on fumes at that point. So it wasn’t a relief, but at the same time, when I came out, I knew I gave everything I had.”

The Pirates have lost eight of 12 and were being no-hit into the middle innings for the second straight day. Sonny Gray carried a perfect game into the sixth inning on Saturday before Pittsburgh rallied for a 3-1 victory.

“Last night, we did a good job bouncing back and won the game against a really effective starter,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said. “I think we saw a game today that Keuchel took advantage of a very liberal strike zone. When you get a veteran guy that can manipulate the ball the way he does, he did a good job doing that.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The post Caffeinated Keuchel takes perfect game into 7th appeared first on Sports News.

CINCINNATI — Brandon Belt had his second multihomer game this season, Hyun Jin Ryu won consecutive starts for the first time since his latest Tommy John surgery, and the Toronto Blue Jays routed the Cincinnati Reds 10-3 Sunday to win the series between playoff contenders.

Kevin Kiermaier and Belt hit two-run homers in the second inning, and Bo Bichette, Belt and George Springer had solo shots in the fourth. Belt also homered twice against Boston on July 2 and has 10 two-homer games in his big league career.

Hunter Greene (2-5), who made his first start since June 17 after a stint on the injured list caused by right hip pain, gave up career highs of nine runs and 10 hits and tied his career high by allowing five home runs. He also gave up five at Milwaukee on May 5 last year.

“Obviously, today was frustrating,” Greene said. “Not what I envisioned coming back.”

Bichette homered for the first time since July 25. He was activated Saturday after being sidelined with right knee patellar tendonitis. He also tripled and scored in the first inning.

“Bo being gone for two weeks — triple, homer, kind of instant offense,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “Kind of typical Bo with a opposite-field homer. I think that’s really good for those guys.”

Toronto is a half-game back for the AL’s last wild card and Cincinnati is one game behind for the NL’s final berth.

Ryu, a 36-year-old left-hander in the final season of an $80 million, four-year contract, allowed two runs and four hits in five innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. He made his season debut on Aug. 1 after recovering from his second Tommy John surgery in June 2022.

“I thought they were going to be really aggressive, so I went to get ahead in counts, and it was a key point in my game that I was able to do that,” Ryu said through an interpreter. “Our team was able to get up some runs.”

Bowden Francis allowed one run and two hits over three innings for his first professional save.

Tyler Stephenson homered for Cincinnati.

The game got messy for the Reds early. After Bichette tripled in the first, he scored on an error by Reds second baseman Matt McLain.

Danny Jansen doubled, and Kiermaier’s shot to right made it 3-0 in the second. A double by Whit Merrifield set up Belt’s two-run blast. Then came the fourth-inning barrage that chased Greene.

It was the 12th time in which a Reds pitcher allowed five homers.

Cincinnati scored two on an error in the second, and Stephenson homered in the seventh.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The post Reds’ Greene gives up 5 HRs to Jays in return appeared first on Sports News.

Seattle Mariners rookie right-hander Emerson Hancock exited Sunday’s game against the host Houston Astros because of a right shoulder strain.

Hancock, 24, scattered two hits over two scoreless innings.

The sixth overall pick in the 2020 amateur draft, Hancock had yet to record a decision and owned a 5.40 ERA in two starts with Seattle.

He is no stranger to arm injuries, however. His start to last season was delayed by a lat strain.

Hancock posted an 11-5 record with a 4.32 ERA in 20 starts for Double-A Arkansas this season. He struck out 107 batters with 38 walks in 98 innings.

The post Mariners rookie P Hancock (shoulder) exits start appeared first on Sports News.

CINCINNATI — The Toronto Blue Jays designated veteran infielder Paul DeJong for assignment Saturday, 18 days after acquiring him from the St. Louis Cardinals.

DeJong, who Toronto shipped minor league right-hander Matt Svanson to St. Louis to land, provided the Blue Jays some depth after All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette went on the 10-day injured list with right knee soreness.

But Bichette was activated Saturday, in time for Toronto’s 4-3 win over the Cincinnati Reds, and with DeJong struggling, the Blue Jays trimmed him off the roster.

Toronto general manager Ross Atkins was enthused to land DeJong earlier this month, even aside from Bichette’s injury. But he did tell reporters after the deal that Bichette’s status “heightened the need” to acquire the veteran.

“He’s an interesting fit for us without the injury,” Atkins said. “He’s hit left-handers relatively well. Very good defender that complements our organization and depth.”

DeJong, 29, had spent his entire seven-year career with St. Louis, hitting .233/.297/.412 this season, with 13 home runs and 32 RBIs. He was an All-Star in 2019 when he hit a career-best 30 home runs.

But in Toronto, batting mostly at the bottom of the order, he didn’t fit in. He had just three hits in 14 games and one RBI. He also struck out 18 times.

Svanson, 24, was the Blue Jays’ 13th-round draft selection in 2021 out of Lehigh University.

Bichette had an RBI single in his return, and Davis Schneider hit a tiebreaking solo homer as the Blue Jays evened their series against the Reds before Sunday’s finale.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

The post Jays DFA DeJong after 18 days, activate Bichette appeared first on Sports News.

• Associated Press

Aug 19, 2023, 07:35 PM ET

CLEVELAND — Manny Ramirez pulled off his dark designer sunglasses, tugged at his Dolce & Gabbana tie and smiled widely.

Back in his element.

Manny being Manny.

“It’s an honor to come back to the house that I built, the Jake,” Ramírez said during a news conference at Progressive Field, known as Jacobs Field when the slugger played in Cleveland. “I know they changed the name, but I’m happy to be back. I’m happy to be back in the city and the place that I grew up.”

One of best hitters in baseball history, and one of the game’s biggest characters, Ramírez, who broke in with those powerhouse Indians teams in the 1990s, returned on Saturday to be inducted into the Guardians Hall of Fame.

Ramirez, 51, was relaxed and wildly entertaining during a 16-minute session with reporters in which he touched on his playing career in Cleveland and Boston, his ambivalence toward being voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame and his future.

“I’m going to play in Prague next year,” he claimed. “They saw me hitting BP [batting practice] and they said, ‘Can you take some at-bats with us?’ In Czechoslovakia, yes.”

With Ramírez, anything’s possible.

Born in the Dominican Republic and raised in New York, he broke in with Cleveland in 1993, and it didn’t take long for Ramirez to blossom into a perennial All-Star.

Blessed with quick hands, a keen batter’s eye and ample power to all fields, Ramirez destroyed pitches and pitching staffs on the way to finishing with a career .312 average and 555 home runs, which ranks 15th all-time.

“He’s one of the most gifted hitters I’ve ever seen,” said Guardians manager Terry Francona, who won two World Series titles with Ramirez in Boston. “It felt different when he got in that batter’s box. It was different when he left the batter’s box, too.

“But when he was in the batter box, man, it was pretty special. He had a pretty good idea of what he wanted to do.”

Different defines Ramirez.

But despite his many impressive on-field achievements, Ramirez’s two suspensions for performance-enhancing drugs have stained his résumé and kept him from being voted by baseball writers for enshrinement in Cooperstown.

He’s hardly alone. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa are among the many superstars who have not been forgiven for missteps during baseball’s steroid era.

Ramírez insists the omission doesn’t bother him.

“Life is not how you start, it’s how you finish,” he said. “I want to be there, but my priority is something else. But it’s going to happen. It’s going to happen with time. But I’m not in a rush.”

After receiving a warm ovation in pregame ceremonies, Ramírez thanked Cleveland’s fans for their unwavering support.

“With all my mistakes, you guys have stayed with me,” he said.

During his playing career, Ramirez was also known for being a little goofy and unpredictable.

There were memorable and comical moments on and off the field, with some of his antics becoming so routine they were summed up as “Manny being Manny.”

Ramirez said the phrase has always puzzled him.

“What does that mean?” he asked.

Ramirez attributed many of his actions to being young and carefree, such as the time he asked a beat reporter before a game in Kansas City if he could borrow $10,000 so he could buy a motorcycle.

“We were just joking as kids,” he said. “Life is all about having fun. And then when you gotta work, you go get it. Because you don’t know when you’re going to die. It’s a blessing to come here and put on that uniform. That’s life.

“Remember, you’re not going to please everybody. But you can please yourself.”

Even in retirement, Ramirez, who took some swings in the ballpark’s indoor batting cages earlier in the day with his three sons, looks like he could get a couple of hits.

He’s certain of it.

“Just put me in the lineup,” he said. “Like last night, I saw these guys hitting and I wanted to activate myself. I should be hitting third.”

On his way out of the interview room, Ramirez paused at the doorway.

“Manny being Manny,” he said with a shrug.

The post Manny enters Guardians HOF in ‘house I built’ appeared first on Sports News.

• Associated Press

Aug 19, 2023, 05:57 PM ET

CLEVELAND — With an eye toward improving their catching in the future, the Detroit Tigers designated veteran Eric Haase for assignment and signed free agent catcher Carson Kelly on Saturday.

Haase, 30, has been with Detroit since 2020. The 30-year-old has struggled at the plate, especially against left-handers with just a .129 average.

Haase caught the second game of Friday night’s doubleheader before manager A.J. Hinch told him he was being designated.

“It’s tough to deliver that type of news to someone who is universally liked, loved, respected,” Hinch said. “He had some really cool moment for us here. Unfortunately, it hasn’t gone great this year.”

Haase grew up in Detroit and always wanted to play for his childhood team, and Hinch said his connection to the team made the decision that much harder.

“He did a lot of things for us and organization,” Hinch said. “I was close to Eric. I think he’s terrific. He helped. It wasn’t working out here as well as it had in previous years.”

Kelly was released earlier this week by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Once he settles in, the 29-year-old will likely split time with Jake Rogers, who has solidified himself as Detroit’s No. 1 catcher.

Kelly struggled at the plate this season, batting .226 with one homer and six RBIs in 33 games.

“He can do a lot,” Hinch said. “We think we can improve his receiving. He’s got some power. He’s got experience. He’s a well-rounded, all-around catcher.”

The post Tigers cut vet catcher Haase, sign free agent Kelly appeared first on Sports News.

• ESPN News Services

Aug 19, 2023, 01:01 AM ET

ANAHEIM, Calif. — The Los Angeles Angels turned their first triple play in 26 years during the ninth inning Friday night against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The triple play helped the Angels remain tied 6-6 going into the bottom of the ninth in an eventual 9-6 loss in 10 innings.

With runners at the corners and the infield playing shallow, Harold Ramirez hit a grounder to Luis Rengifo. The shortstop made the short toss to second baseman Brandon Drury to get Randy Arozarena and then threw to first baseman Nolan Schanuel.

Yandy Diaz was at third but did not go when the ball was hit. He waited until Drury threw to first to start home, but Schanuel made a perfect throw to catcher Logan O’Hoppe, who tagged out Diaz on his left shoulder before he could touch home.

O’Hoppe and pitcher Carlos Estevez both celebrated after the triple play was completed. It was the seventh triple play in Angels’ history and the first since July 5, 1997, against Seattle.

The Angels had a chance to win it in the ninth when they had runners on first and second with one out, but Shohei Ohtani struck out and Drury grounded out to send it into extra innings.

“We certainly had our opportunities there. We just didn’t push a run across,” Angels manager Phil Nevin said. “A couple got away there in the ninth inning. That’s what happens when games get like this.”

The Rays broke through with three runs in the 10th. Pinch-runner Jose Siri started on second as the automatic runner and advanced to third on a wild pitch by Carlos Estevez (5-4).

Luke Raley drove in Siri for the go-ahead run while Lowe and Rene Pinto also had RBI base hits.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The post Angels turn triple play in ninth, then fall in 10th appeared first on Sports News.

New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón is scheduled to come off the injured list and start Tuesday’s series opener against the Washington Nationals, manager Aaron Boone said Friday.

Rodón went on the 15-day IL on Aug. 7 with a left hamstring strain.

Boone also said Luis Severino, who has struggled mightily throughout the summer, is scheduled to make his next start the following Wednesday.

The Yankees have lost five straight games and dipped below .500 (60-61) ahead of this weekend’s home series against the Boston Red Sox. Jhony Brito, who has split his time between the majors and Triple-A, was named the starter for Friday’s season opener, with Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt to follow.

Rodón, 30, is in the first year of a six-year, $162 million contract signed in December. After making consecutive All-Star Games with the Chicago White Sox in 2021 and the San Francisco Giants in 2022, Rodón missed the first three months of 2023 with forearm and back injuries before making his team and season debut July 7.

In six starts, Rodón is 1-4 with a 7.33 ERA and has allowed eight home runs in 27 innings.

Severino is 2-8 with a 7.98 ERA in 15 games this season. The two-time All-Star gave up seven or more runs on three occasions in July; he is 1-6 with an 11.08 ERA in eight outings since July 1.

Speculation was rampant that two of the organization’s top prospects — outfielders Everson Pereira and catcher Austin Wells — would be called up to make their major league debuts after both players did not play Thursday for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Neither player was recalled Friday, with Boone telling reporters that the pair of prospects were on the Yankees’ radar.

“Those guys are obviously knocking on the door,” Boone said. “… Those are guys that are pushing their way into the conversation. We’ll see where we are as we continue to move forward.”

The post Yankees’ Rodón to return to rotation Tuesday appeared first on Sports News.