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Sam Bruce, Deputy Editor, espn.com.au
It’s Rugby World Cup squad naming season.
With the countdown set to officially hit the “one month to go” marker on Tuesday, the 20 nations heading to France are fast running out of time to make the final, and potentially vital, decisions in the make-up of their 33-man groups.
Samoa dropped their squad on Sunday, headlined by former Wallabies playmaker Christian Leali’ifano and former All Blacks Lima Sopoaga, Steven Luatua and Charlie Faumuina, while New Zealand coach Ian Foster will unveil his group on Monday evening [NZT].
Wallabies coach Eddie Jones, meanwhile, has three days to finalise a squad he said can “100% win the World Cup… as a matter of fact, I think we will.”
But the veteran mentor, who will be coaching at an incredible fifth World Cup, has some huge calls to make amid injuries, form and the need to strike the right balance between positional groups.
These will be the issues keeping Jones up at night this week.
CAN WALLABIES AFFORD TO TAKE AN INJURED MICHAEL HOOPER?
To pose that question, even earlier this year, would have almost been unthinkable. But such has been the turn of events in the past month, there is the very real possibility that Hooper could be left out of the squad altogether.
Undoubtedly, it would be one of the biggest calls ever made in Wallabies history. To leave out a player with Hooper’s experience, including two previous World Cups, would cut to the very fabric of the game in Australia and likely divide opinions right across the country.
But a troublesome calf injury, which was last week revealed to be far worse than when ESPN first reported his omission from the Test against the Pumas in Sydney, could spell the end of not only Hooper’s World Cup dream but his international career full stop.
“Just wait and see, just sit in your chair and wait,” Jones said when asked about the seriousness of the injuries to Hooper and Taniela Tupou, and whether the duo would travel to Darwin for the Wallabies’ next camp.
The astonishing rise of Tom Hooper over the past few weeks means Jones likely faces a choice between either Michael Hooper of Fraser McReight. On the strength of the Queenslander’s performance in the 23-20 loss to the All Blacks over the weekend, it’s hard to see how the Wallabies can overlook the former Junior Wallabies captain.
The way McReight and Tom Hooper combined, alongside Rob Valetini, in the back-row in Dunedin was superb and while there may be questions about McReight’s ability to handle the physicality of bigger packs on slower tracks in France, the fact Tom Hooper can also cover No. 7, as he showed in Melbourne a week earlier, puts further pressure on the veteran with whom he shares a surname.
“What we’re seeing is guys like Tom Hooper and Fraser McReight, those boys are coming out of their shells; particularly Hoops, what is this his third or fourth game; he was everywhere,” Wallabies captain Tate McDermott said after Bledisloe II.
“He’s an absolute brick in defence and he’s finding his feet on the attack side as well; not only Hoops, I thought the back-row was outstanding.”
Pete Samu’s ability to cover all three positions in the back-row make the Brumbies man, who was left out of the squad for the Bledisloe Cup series, an attractive commodity while Jed Holloway and Rob Leota are both capable of covering lock as well as No. 6.
Can you afford to take a punt on a 31-year-old with a nagging calf injury, who can only cover No. 7, when there is a younger, faster and arguably more impactful option ready to go now?
It would be a cruel end for Michael Hooper, a man who has given so much to Australian rugby over the course of more than a decade, but there can be very little room for sentimentality when it comes to selecting a World Cup squad. And Jones has shown in the past he has no hesitation in making the tough calls.
And there is absolutely no doubt that Hooper would, if he was indeed overlooked, still do whatever was asked of him and more to help the Wallabies prepare for their World Cup campaign.
IS MCDERMOTT NOW THE MAN TO CAPTAIN AUSTRALIA?
Tate McDermott became the Wallabies’ 86th captain, and Australia’s fourth different captain this year, when he led the team out onto Forsyth Barr Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
On an occasion when he could have very well been caught up in the moment, McDermott instead led the Wallabies in a calm and controlled manner, and managed referee Karl Dickson as well as any Australia captain has in recent times.
Arguably the only blemish on McDermott’s performance was a decision to kick for the corner from just over 40 metres out, when perhaps a shot at penalty goal was in order when Australia were leading 17-3. The kick would have been right on the edge of Carter Gordon’s range, but it may well have been worth a shot to try and extend the Wallabies’ lead out by a further three points.
Regardless, it has left Jones with yet another decision to make around his captain. After naming James Slipper and Michael Hooper as co-captains ahead of the Rugby Championship, Jones must face up to the reality that both men are no longer guaranteed starters – and in the case of Hooper, a place in the matchday 23 and potentially the squad overall is entirely up in the air.
Angus Bell’s superb return from injury – he was magnificent once more in Dunedin – demands a spot in the run-on side, the Waratahs prop able to go 60-plus minutes, likely pushing Slipper back to bench as a result.
There is obviously no Allan Alaalatoa, which leaves just Jed Holloway, Nic White and Andrew Kellaway from Jones’ original leadership group, which McDermott ironically wasn’t even a part of. In fact, McDermott was left out of Jones’ first squad for a training camp in April altogether.
But having usurped White as the Wallabies’ first-choice No. 9, McDermott could very well find himself with the metaphorical captain’s armband in France as well. Such a call would also be a nod to the future, with the 24-year-old McDermott set to be a cornerstone of the Wallabies for the run to 2027.
TIGHTHEAD PROP REMAINS A HUGE CONCERN DESPITE FA’AUMASILI’S ARRIVAL
For a player who is accustomed to 20-minute cameos off the bench, even at Super Rugby level, Pone Fa’aumasili’s effort in Dunedin will have provided great comfort, and joy, to not only the Wallabies but the wider Australian rugby community in general.
Another player to have emerged from Melbourne, Fa’aumasili joins Rob Valetini, Pete Samu, Jordan Uelese and Rob Leota in representing Victorian rugby on the international stage.
The fact Fa’aumasili was able to get through 60 minutes, despite a couple of knocks along the way, will have gone some way to easing the concerns about Australia’s depth at tighthead. However, once he was replaced by Zane Nonggorr in Dunedin, the Wallabies’ scrum came under immense pressure and the All Blacks were able to build pressure off the back of it. In the end, it was New Zealand’s scrum that won them the game.
The big question here is just how serious Taniela Tupou’s rib cartilage injury is, or at least what level of pain the powerhouse prop is in and whether he might be able to play through it with the aid of some pain management.
If Tupou is able to start, with Fa’aumasili coming off the bench, the Wallabies scrum should hold up under pressure against the stronger set-piece teams, including first-up opponents Georgia, in France. But if Tupou’s injury keeps him sidelined, then the Australian scrum could go backwards at the same rate in did in the second half on Saturday afternoon.
Still, Nonggorr looks set to win a World Cup berth at just 22 years of age, which would be another a positive step in his development considering what lies in wait for the Wallabies over the next five years.
POSITIONAL BALANCE WILL DETERMINE JONES’ FINAL 10 SQUAD SELECTIONS
On the evidence of the weekend’s 23-20 loss to the All Blacks, and the winless Rugby Championship campaign beforehand, roughly 23 players appear to have their names firmly scribble on the Wallabies’ 33-strong teamsheet.
The remaining 10 or so will be the subject of great intrigue, particularly given the aforementioned injuries to Michael Hooper and Tupou, plus other niggles suffered by Dave Porecki, Jordan Uelese and Samu Kerevi, who will reportedly undergo minor surgery on a broken hand, and the ongoing recovery of Len Ikitau.
Can Jones afford to carry an extra centre to offset concerns around Kerevi and Ikitau? Do you sacrifice a spot in the back three, potentially Suliasi Vunivalu, to carry a Lalakai Foketi given Jordan Petaia, Andrew Kellaway and Izaia Perese can all cover on the wing?
Does Jones go with only two halfbacks to allow for an extra body at hooker or prop, where there are significant injury concerns and bound to be further knocks after the pool play gets underway in France?
Dylan Pietsch and Ben Donaldson have been with the Wallabies squad throughout their four Tests, yet neither player has come close making the 23. Does their “utility” value hold greater sway than perhaps the inclusion of Bernard Foley as a third fly-half?
Are Pietsch and Donaldson the kind of players, almost squad support staff in nature, that Jones has mentioned on multiple occasions this year, men who are unlikely to see more than a sparing few minutes, or perhaps the final pool game against Portugal, and spend the rest of their time holding tackle bags or running as makeshift defenders?
At this stage, and knowing Jones, you wouldn’t rule anything out. Whatever the case, it promises to be a nervy 48 hours or so for those 18 or so players – in ESPN’s eyes anyway – who are hunting roughly 10 spots in Australia’s World Cup squad.
There was plenty of drama in Dunedin on Saturday, but it might not be finished just yet.